Tuesday, 4 July 2017

LYSAGHT - Almost too good to be true?

Lysaght Galvanized Steel Berhad is a leading manufacturer of galvanised steel poles in Malaysia. Its main products are poles, masts, decorative poles and tubular steel structures.



An interesting smallcap stock for the following reasons:

1. Zero debt. Zero credit risk. A conservative company. It has been debt free for more than 10 years.

2. Strong net cash position. Its net cash stood at RM59.6m as of end-March 2017. That's 40.9% of its current market cap (RM145.5m)!

3. Single digit PE ratio at 9.2x (based of the net profit of RM15.751m for the most recent 4 quarters).  Ex-cash, it is trading at a PE ratio of only 5.5x!

4. Superb margin. The company has been enjoying margin expansion. Its FY16 gross margin and net margin were as high as 40% and 23% respectively. The margins tell a lot about its bargaining power, the competition among its peers and its specialty. More likely a price maker than a price taker. 


5. Products accepted worldwide. Its products are manufactured in compliance with recognised International Standards and are accepted worldwide as they are compliant with British (BS), European (EN) and American (AASHTO) standards (source: FY16 annual report). Export to advanced countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, Autralasia. About 47% of FY16 was generated locally and another 46% was derived from Singapore.

6. Low capex and cash generative business. It is in a low capex business. For the past 10 years, the capex was generally below RM2m a year except for FY12 and FY13 in which it spent a total of RM17.9m on land, buildings and machinery (including a RM11m factory on a plot of freehold land in Hicom-Glenmarie ). The capex was as low as RM67,560 in 2009. Despite paying out about 48% of cumulative core net profit between 2007 and 2016, its cash has ballooned from RM8.1m end-2006 to RM61.6m end-2016. It disposed off an investment property at RM6.4m in 2015. 


7. Product range and geographical expansions. Whilst the existing operations are fairly stable and sustainable for the moment, the group is currently looking into diversifying into a new product range to cater for tubular steel structures and export market. These products which carry higher loading are manufactured with heavier steel and more sophisticated know-how. Hence, better margin is expected from these products. In its recent AGM, the Board said the company has allocated RM10m capex for machinery upgrade.

8. Positive industry outlook. The group's business is largely reliant on supply to projects from the infrastructure and construction sector. Mega projects being implemented include MRT 2, LRT 3, East Coast Rail Line, Pan Borneo Highway, West Coast Expressway, Gemas-JB Double Track and KL-Singapore High Speed Rail. 

To get a feel for the amount of highway jobs being implemented currently, the longest existing highway in Malaysia, North-South Expressway is 772km long, while in near to medium term, various highways with a combined length of more than 2,500km are being implemented simultaneously. Besides these highways, LYSAGHT is likely to benefit from above mentioned rail-related projects as well. (Pan Borneo Highway >2,000km, West Coast Expressway 316km, East Klang Valley Expressway, and several urban highways which include DASH, SUKE, Duke 3 and Duke 2A)

The negative aspects of this stock:

Low trading liquidity. The Chew family and related parties are holding about 74% of the shares. Furthermore, it has a small share base with only 41.58m of shares issued. It is in the bottom 1% or 2% among Bursa Malaysia listed companies, in terms of number of shares issued. With a share capital of RM41.58m and retained earnings at RM85.3mn, a share bonus issue and/ or share split is overdue.

FY16 dividend yield unattractive. Its 7sen/share dividend for FY16 (2.0% dividend yield) has nothing to shout about. The Board said in AGM that the company is conserving cash for capex to widen its product range. However, for the past 10 years, it has cumulatively paid out about half of its cumulative core net profit. Between 2007 and 2016, it has paid out RM55.3m of dividends out of the cumulative net profit of RM114.5mn. Average payout was at 48.3%. It declared a special dividend of 50sen/share in 2014.

Board tussle. With the ex-MD, Mr Liew quit the MD role and ceased to be a board member, the tussle could a thing of the past. The MD position was taken over by Mr Chua, an old-timer in Lysaght. He was appointed as the acting CEO on 1 June 2016 and appointed as the CEO on 1 Jan 2017. Assuming Mr Chua took 3 to 4 months to settle down, the company under his stewardship, reported strong YoY growths in top line and bottom line for 4Q16 and 1Q17. If we annualise the net profit for the most recent 6 months, the stock is trading at a PE ratio of only 7.9x, and a mere 4.7x if ex-cash!!

Mr Chua is a loyal staff of Lysaght. He has been with the company for 45 years and works his way up to the top.


Conclusion:

Zero debt, strong net cash, low PE ratio, superb margin, worldwide recognised products, low capex, cash generative business, having growth potential and positive industry outlook.

If we annualise the EPS (based on the most recent 2 quarters) and set a target PE multiple of 10 times, the stock is worth RM4.44. This has yet to factor in its cash per share of RM1.43 per share and its growth potential. If we price in a premium of 2x PE multiple for its strong net cash position and growth potential, then the fair value of stock is RM5.33.

A savvy investor, Mr Teo Kwee Hock surfaced on list of 30 largest shareholders, as the 6th largest shareholder as of 31 March 2017.

Wednesday, 3 May 2017

The Other Side of the Story on Termination of Bandar Malaysia Agreement


Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/deal-to-prop-up-malaysias-1mdb-falls-apart-1493828337

Was the termination of agreement due to failure of the consortium in meeting the payment obligation or the Chinese government refused to authorize the investment?

Also, will Malaysian government take action against WSJ for the accusations made by WSJ?

Tuesday, 2 May 2017

A company having older directors' average age than Public Bank's

Public Bank directors' ages average 71.5 years. There is a Bursa listed company with directors' ages older than this. Advanced Packaging Technology (M) Bhd at an average of 74, with the oldest director 87 years old.

Sunday, 19 February 2017

Tan Teng Boo now sees KLCI and S&P 500 hitting 2,400 and 3,000 in medium term

This is on hindsight.

Tan Teng Boo had been bearish since April/May 2011.
"Since April/May 2011, I have been bearish on equities globally, including that of Bursa Malaysia. My bearish views have not changed one iota" (source).
He was still bearish on the equity markets last week, foreseeing KLCI possibly hitting  800-900 points and S&P 500 touching 1,350 in medium term. Just a week later, he made an unprecedented and very drastic revisions in index forecasts, revising his KLCI mid term possible target to 2,400, and S&P 500 to 3,000 from 1,350.


(See previous posting: another extreme forecast that went wrong.)

He was persistent on his bearish view and missed the the run-ups in stock markets.

Icap's average return since inception is still decent, thanks to exceptionally strong performance of the fund in the initial years.


Personally, I prefer a semi-log graph to linear graph in fund performance chart like this. It gives better depiction of a fund performance as the fund size grows. (In linear chart, a 30sen increase in NAV from a reference price of RM3 looks more impressive than a 10sen increase in NAV from a reference price of RM1, even though both having the same 10% growth.)

His global fund is not that lucky.

After about 9.5 years, the Global Fund generated a cumulative return of 5.9%, or at an annual compound rate of 0.6%. The fund's performance dipped below its benchmark, giving up the outperformance the fund had been enjoying since inception.

The International Value fund has a moderate cumulative return since inception, at a CAGR of 4.21%. It underperformed both benchmarks.

He had been reminding us the investing rule of never lose money. For a 50% loss in an investment, you need a 100% to make up the earlier loss.

Thursday, 20 October 2016

KHEESAN and REACH to have general meetings in early morning hours and late afternoon hours

Headquartered at Seri Kembangan, Kheesan had been conducting its AGMs in Klang Valley. 


FY
Venue
Time
2000
Bukit Jalil Gold & Country Resort
1500
2001
Bukit Jalil Gold & Country Resort
1500
2002
Bukit Jalil Gold & Country Resort
1500
2003
Bukit Jalil Gold & Country Resort
1500
2004
Bukit Jalil Gold & Country Resort
1500
2005
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1500
2006
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1500
2007
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1500
2008
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1500
2009
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1100
2010
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1111
2011
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1111
2012
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1111
2013
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1111
2014
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1111
2015
Mines Resort City, Seri Kembangan
1111
2016
Taman Perindustrian Desa Cemerlang, Ulu Tiram, Johor
0800
However, for FY16, the group will convene its 22nd AGM at Ulu Tiram, Johor. Looking at the list of properties of the group shown in FY15 annual report, it did not show Kheesan owning any property in Ulu Tiram. The AGM will be held at London Biscuit's office in Ulu Tiram. London Biscuit is the largest shareholder of Kheesan.

Besides the unexpected change in meeting venue, the meeting is scheduled to start at 8a.m..

What could be the real reason of having the AGM so far away from its business address, and at such early hour if it is not trying to discourage minority shareholders from attending the AGM? Shareholders should seek clarifications from the management.

Separately, Reach Energy will be having its EGM on 4 Nov 2016 at 3.30pm. I think the reason of having the general meeting in late afternoon hours is to provide fair trading of its shares as the asset acquisition voting results are material to the movement of the share price, its warrants price in particular. It may take 1 to 2 hours for presentation on the proposed acquisition and Q&A session before the voting starts. By the time the results are released, stock market would probably have closed for the day. This prevents potential unfair advantage to those who know the results before announcement by the Chairman in the EGM or to those members attending the meeting versus those shareholders who do not.

Monday, 10 October 2016

Bina Puri – Keep asking for money but where has the value gone?


Bina Puri had its IPO in November 1994. Based on IPO price of RM2.80/share, it carried a market value of RM112m. It has been about 22 years since its listing. However, its current market cap is below the value of the group during IPO time (based on IPO offer price).


Let’s not forget after IPO, Bina Puri has raised a total of RM150.4m from rights issue (RM40m), private placement (RM93.3m) and ESOS (RM17.1m). This has not taken into consideration that the group had capitalised RM20m of debt in 2009.



And last Friday, Bina Puri proposed a private placement of not more than 10% of enlarged share capital of the group. Again?


The company has been profitable since 2000. But why is it still stucked as a micro cap company? Furthermore, the total proceeds raised over the years after IPO alone (RM150.4m, excluding RM20m debt capitalisation) were already greater than its current market cap, even after deducting total dividend paid out since 2003!(historical records of dividend payout before 1999 were not available at Bursa website)

Despite it has been profitable since 2000, it had to carry out capital reduction (from par value per share of RM1 to RM0.50) in 2014 in order to new shares as the share price then was way below RM1. As highlighted above, the IPO offer price was RM2.80/share. What has gone wrong?

Is this company too undervalued that investors failed to appreciate the assets owned by the group and its earnings potential or is it something not right within the company that caused value destruction to the minority shareholders? Something for existing shareholders of Bina Puri and potential investors to look further into.

UPDATE: The group's cash and cash equivalents as of end June 2016 was RM-11.4m (negative cash!)

You may be interested to find out previous writing about Bina Puri: Is Bina Puri Cheap?

Sunday, 2 October 2016

Is Bina Puri cheap?

Bina Puri was founded in 1975. It celebrated its 40th anniversary in 2015. Among its track records:

- Completed many types of civil and building projects in various parts of Malaysia, including East Malaysia 
- It has completed several projects in overseas (Thailand, Brunei, Russia, India, Nepal, Pakistan, UAE, China, and etc.)
- Completed Ampang LRT line extension
- Completed KLIA2 satelite building
- A group with turnover exceeding a billion RM (since 2010)
- Uninterrupted yearly profit since 2000

In terms of assets, the group has:

- Recurring income from power generation business in Indonesia (more than 30MW)
- 50% stake in LATAR Highway
- Net asset value per share of 93.47sen as of end June 2016
- Recurring income from Main Place shopping mall (33% effective stake)

For its construction division, it has a strong outstanding order book of RM2.0b. It is actively tendering for civil works such as LRT 3, MRT 2, and various highway projects.

However, some readers may not be aware that the group's market capitalisation is only RM101m (share price 41.5sen) last Friday.

Construction companies such as Gamuda, IJM were founded around 1970's or 1980's. Their market capitalisations have now exceeded RM10b. Late comer Gadang which Tan Sri Kok Onn took over the control in 90's, is having a market cap of RM742m. It has similar business segments as Bina Puri (construction, property and utilities). Construction specialists focusing in foundation works, Econpile, Ptaras have market caps of  RM904m, and RM582m.

Before reading further, what do you think?
a) The stock is grossly undervalued
b) There could be reasons for the uninspiring share price performance.

In 2013, Ng Keong Wee took up private placements by the group at RM1/share and emerged as a substantial shareholder with about 9% to 10% holding in the group. About 3 years down the road, his stake has been diluted to 5.8%. A bigger concern is the paper loss as the share price has declined to about 40sen/share now.

Some bloggers have recommended this stock but why is the share price fails to excite in a sustainable manner? 

Even though the numbers look good, unless there is a positive change in certain "qualitative" aspect of the group, I am skeptical that the share price will go far in a sustainable manner.

Separately, SJC is an advertising company. It is in net cash position with the value close to its market cap. This is before including some good properties owned by the group. The group has been profitable in recent years. It also pays dividend. Last week, it has just secured a 10-years concession from MRT which may double the group's revenue. Despite all these, there was no appreciation in terms of share price. This stock is under researched but I am sure there are investors who know the group and its financial standing. Other than share trading liquidity, what is lacking is the stock?

I see similar issue in Menang and AYS. Again, unless there is a positive change in certain "qualitative" aspect of the group, I tend to think the share prices of these listed companies won't go far.

Wednesday, 8 June 2016

JAYCORP - Potentially a good dividend yield stock?



For the past 5 years, JAYCORP has been quite generous in dividend payouts, with an average dividend payout ratio of 74%.

It recorded strong growth in EPS in 1HFY16. The 6 months earnings have already exceeded full year earnings achieved in FY14 and FY15.

If we annualise the EPS and assume a dividend payout of 50%, this translates into DPS of 8.45sen. At current share price of RM1.04, it offers an attractive dividend yield of 8.1%.

Annualise the EPS, the stock is trading at an undemanding PE multiple of 6.2x

As of Jan-16, it was in a net cash position of RM6.1m.

Saturday, 28 May 2016

It is shocking that Tan Teng Boo missed the big picture


Tan Teng Boo was pessimistic about the economy of Malaysia. He sees the possibility of FBMKLCI dipping below 1,000 points in medium term.

In Capital Dynamics' newsletter dated 29 Jan 2016, he commented "MRT project is near completion with no viable large scale infrastructure projects imminent".

But... didn't he notice the following before the issuance of the newsletter dated 29 Jan 2016,

i) MMC-GAMUDA JV was appointed as the PDP for MRT line 2? (Bursa announcement dated 29 October 2014)
ii) Execution of PDP agreement for MRT line 2? (Bursa announcement dated 13 July 2015)
iii) NST artcile "Advance works for MRT Line 2 ongoing" published on 23 February 2016, just about a week before Tan Teng Boo's article
iv) Article by The Star dated 20 February 2016, saying MRT line 2 would be completed by 2022, published slightly more than a week before Tan Teng Boo's article.

MRT line 2 is expected to cost about RM28b to RM30b, the single largest construction project being implemented in Malaysia.

Besides MRT line 2, another mega project, Pan Borneo Highway was launched in 2015. (source)

On top of that, MRCB-GKENT JV was appointed as the PDP for RM9b LRT line 3 in September 2015. (source)

How could Mr Tan, which based in KL was so ignorant about the development in Malaysia and missed the information which is publicly available?

Separately, he has been complaining the distance between KLIA and KL city centre. To quote him, “Why was Sepang chosen to house the Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) and not Subang? The KLIA is 80km from Kuala Lumpur. Today the KLIA is the furthest airport from the city centre in the world." (Source)

However, if we "google map", the distance is about 60km. Which is right? Did Mr Tan get his fact right?

Capital Dynamics claims it is an independent fund management and investment advisory house. I wonder how this could be achieved. If he finds a very attractive stock in Bursa Malaysia, but the trading of the stock is not liquid, do you think Capital Dynamics will write about the stock in his newsletter before the funds under his management have accumulated sufficient amount of shares?

Sunday, 22 May 2016

Are you a high networth individual?

Based on Securities Commission Malaysia's guidelines, a high networth individual is defined as:

An individual whose total net personal assets, or total net joint assets with his or her spouse, exceeds RM3 million or its equivalent in foreign currencies, excluding the value of the individual’s primary residence.

An individual who has a gross annual income exceeding RM300,000 or its equivalent in foreign currencies per annum in the preceding 12 months.

An individual who, jointly with his or her spouse, has a gross annual income of RM400,000 or its equivalent in foreign currencies per annum in the preceding 12 months.

Source: http://www.sc.com.my/wp-content/uploads/eng/html/resources/guidelines/Sales_Practice_Guidelines_March2013.pdf