Friday 21 November 2014

No point focusing too much on forecasts

Totally agree with the article below that forecasts are made to please clients.

It is very important that the analysts understand the business, revenue generators, cost components, variables and industry trends well. But when it comes to earnings models, I see little benefits of having too sophisticated models, with too many variables.

Not to mention forecast for next year, can analysts correctly forecasts most of the variables such as prices of raw materials, prices of commodities, forex, economy, interest rates etc just several months ahead. How many analysts correctly forecast the slump in crude oil price say 6 months ago?

It is better to be roughly right then precisely wrong...

Tuesday 18 November 2014

Free Subscription to Minority Shareholder Watchdog Group Membership

Now you can subscribe to MSWG membership for free for a limited period.

Benefits include:

Access to MSWG Monitoring Services, including:
MSWG Letters to PLCs
PLC Reply Letters to MSWG Questions

Priority booking for MSWG’s Investor Education Programmes
Access to selected Malaysia-ASEAN CG Materials
Subscription to MSWG's weekly E-Newsletter "The Observer

Click here to direct you to the registration page

Malaysia house price to annual income ratio at 5.5x

House price to annual income ratio

US: 3.5x
England: 4.7x
Ireland: 2.8x
Singapore: 5.1x
Hong Kong: 14.9x
Malaysia: 5.5x

Does this reflect the existence of property bubble in Malaysia, given the land in Malaysia is not as scarce as Singapore? Furthermore, Malaysians have to cope with high cost of car ownership

Saturday 8 November 2014


It is quite common to see companies writing something like "the operating environment remains challenging and the company is working to improve its performance" in their quarterly results notes.

The above is part of the IFCAMSC's notes to 3QFY14 financial statements. It is not so common to see a company giving such a bullish outlook of it business.

If I interpret this sentence (The group expects order growth to continue to surge, with,,,,) correctly, it is not only the order is expected to grow, but there is GROWTH in order GROWTH!

The share price is now 10 folds of that at the beginning of the year. Has the share price run ahead of its valuation? There is possibility that the share price may succumb to profit taking after a strong surge. But when investing in a stock, I think the outlook and future earnings are more relevant than the historical share price movement.

If we simply annualise the diluted EPS in 3Q14, the stock is traded at a PE ratio of 14.1x, which I think is not too demanding for a growth stock in net cash position. The PE ratio will be reduced if there is earnings growth in future quarters.

BFM's interview with its CEO, Ken Yong, provides a good insight into its business, why the surge in profit, whether the share price can go higher, how it competes with other players in China, its competitive strength, how much the company is expected to benefit from GST implementation etc.

Cost to develop the software has been sunk in. It is now making profit by "duplicating CDs"

Wednesday 5 November 2014

Poh Huat Resources Holdings Berhad: Quietly increasing dividend payout

Poh Huat Resources Holdings Berhad has been increasing its dividend payout. It used to pay first and final dividend once a year but for FY14 period ending October 2014, it has already declared two interim dividends.

FY09: 2% less tax first and final dividend
FY10: 2% tax exempt first and final dividend
FY11: 2% tax exempt first and final dividend
FY12: 2% tax exempt first and final dividend
FY13: 2% tax exempt special dividend + 3% tax exempt first and final dividend
FY14: 3% first interim single tier dividend + 2% second interim single tier dividend +?% single tier final dividend?

Will the company pay and maintain its final dividend of 3%?

The increase in dividend payout was in tandem with higher profit recorded in 2012, 2013. Margins in 2012 and 2013 improved significantly as compared to the years before.

Its director, Mr. Lim Pei Tiam @ Liam Ahat Kiat has been accumulating the stock since he served notice of interest on 22 July 2013